Rethinking Muslim Fertility: Transitions and Diversity from Muslim-Majority Societies to Europe and Australia

Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi , Vienna Institute of Demography
Meimanat Hosseini-Chavoshi, Australian National University
Tomas Sobotka, Vienna Institute of Demography

Fertility patterns among Muslim populations have undergone profound transformation over the past half-century. This paper examines fertility transitions in Muslim-majority societies and among Muslim populations in Europe and Australia, highlighting the remarkable diversity and convergence that characterize these demographic changes. Most Muslim-majority societies have experienced substantial fertility decline, often reaching or approaching replacement levels, driven by rising education, urbanization, and socioeconomic development. The analysis draws on multiple data sources: UN World Population Prospects (2024) and Wittgenstein Centre Explorer data to trace fertility and educational transitions in Muslim-majority countries; Eurostat, Pew Research Center, and national vital statistics for European countries (Austria, the Netherlands, France, Norway, and the UK); and 2021 Australian Census microdata to examine completed fertility rates, childlessness, and parity progression by religion, education, and origin. In Europe, fertility among women born in Muslim-majority countries has declined steadily, reflecting adaptation and generational change. In Australia, Muslim fertility remains slightly above average and has risen modestly among recent cohorts, yet varies widely by country of origin, underscoring compositional and socioeconomic diversity. The findings demonstrate that the so-called “Muslim fertility gap” has narrowed markedly worldwide. Contemporary fertility differentials primarily reflect education, gender equity, and life-course opportunities rather than religious prescription. By linking fertility decline in origin societies with behavioral adaptation in new contexts, the study contributes to comparative fertility research and challenges enduring narratives of Muslim demographic difference.

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 Presented in Session P8. Demographic Trends, History, Data and Methods