Friday, June 5 / 17:30 - 18:30 Poster Room


Demographic Trends, History, Data and Methods

1. Rethinking Muslim Fertility: Transitions and Diversity from Muslim-Majority Societies to Europe and AustraliaMohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi , Vienna Institute of Demography; Meimanat Hosseini-Chavoshi, Australian National University; Tomas Sobotka, Vienna Institute of Demography.

2. The Defenceless Child: Socio-Economic and Gender Differentiated Child Mortality Responses to Losing One’s Mother in 19th Century SwedenTommy Andersson , Department of Economic History, Lund University.

3. The Role of Living Kin in Later Life Survival: Evidence from Finnish Historical DataAlena Artamonova , Population Research Institute at Väestöliitto; Milla Salonen, University of Turku; Takayuki Hiraoka, Aalto University; Mirkka Lahdenperä, University of Turku; Jari Saramäki, Aalto University; Anna Rotkirch, Population Research Institute at Vaestoliitto; Virpi Lummaa, University of Turku.

4. From Renewal to Complete Depopulation: Demographic Pathways of Small Settlements in Croatia and SloveniaTomislav Belic , Catholic University of Croatia; Hrvoje Štefancic, Catholic University of Croatia; Roko Mišetic, Catholic University of Croatia; Toni Cosic, Catholic University of Croatia.

5. Population at Risk: An Integrated Framework for Volcanic Risk Assessment applied to the Mt. Vesuvius AreaFederico Benassi, Department of Political Sciences, University of Naples Federico II, Italy; Pierfrancesco Dellino, Department of Earth and Geoenvironmental Sciences, University of Bari Aldo Moro, Italy.; Thaís García-Pereiro, University of Bari Aldo Moro; Isabella Lapietra , University of Bari; Anna Paterno.

6. Aligning Historical Data: Harmonizing Under-5 Mortality Records in Türkiye across the 20th CenturySahin Bingöl , Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies; Alanur Çavlin, Hacettepe University; Ahmet Sinan Türkyilmaz, Hacettepe University; Michel Guillot, INED.

7. Fertility Decline in Europe: A Turning Point in French FertilityDidier Breton, Université de Strasbourg; Sandra Florian , INED; John Tomkinson, Université de Lille.

8. A Latent Class Analysis Approach to Multiple Systems Estimation with Longitudinal Register DataLucy Brown , University of Kent; Eleni Matechou, Queen Mary University of London; Bruno Santos, Universidade de Lisboa; Eleonora Mussino, Umeå University.

9. Lithuania between East and West: Longitudinal Research on Households of Pivasiunai ParishDovile Bugiene , Institute of Sociology at the Lithuanian Centre for Social Sciences.

10. Natural or migration-driven decline? Demographic components of systemic depopulation at local level: the case of Austria.Emilio Cameli , University of Molise; Miguel Sanchez-Romero, TU Wien and IIASA; Carlo Lallo, University of Molise.

11. Exploring Age Effects on Item Nonresponse: Evidence from the EVS/WVS Joint 2017 Data for Turkey and ItalySule Ceylan ; Melike Saraç, Hacettepe University, Institute of Population Studies.

12. Levels and trends in fertility rates among adolescents aged 15-19 in 21 States and Union Territories in India from 1990 to 2050: A Bayesian Modelling StudyFengqing Chao, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen; Yifei Su , The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen; Christophe Z. Guilmoto, CEPED/IRD.

13. Designing Inclusive National Surveys: A Participatory and Adaptive Approach to Sampling LGBTQIA+ Populations in BrazilSamuel da Silva , Cidacs/Fiocruz-BA; Fernanda Fortes de Lena, Centre d' Estudis Demogràfics; Ana Hermeto, UFMG - Cedeplar; Raissa Sidrim, Instituto Matizes; Juliana Oliveira, Instituto Matizes; Lucas Bulgarelli , Instituto Matizes; Arthur Fontgaland, Instituto Matizes; Ju Motter, Instituto Matizes; Hannah Maruci, Instituto Matizes; Mariah Rafaela da Silva, World Bank.

14. De jure vs de facto lockdown measures and domestic violence. Evidence from ItalyLucia Dalla Pellegrina, University of Milano Bicocca; Matteo Migheli , Università degli Studi di Torino; Margherita Saraceno, University of Pavia.

15. Education, Origin and Demographic Change: Regional Scenarios for Spain, 2021–2071Osama Damoun El Yemlahi , Centre d'Estudis Demogràfics; Dilek Yildiz, International Institute for Applied Systems Anlaysis; Samir KC, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.

16. How Did Summer Diarrhoeal Epidemics Spread—and How Did They End?: Evidence from a Unique 1908 Household Survey.Nathaniel Darling , University of Cambridge.

18. How many people do I need to detect interactions with survey data? A simulation of social inequality analysis using administrative data.Marta Facchini , INVEST Research Flagship Centre, University of Turku; Elina Kilpi-Jakonen, INVEST Research Flagship Centre; Jani Erola, INVEST Research Flagship Centre.

19. The Formal Demography of Populations with Declining FertilityGustav Feichtinger , Vienna Institute of Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences; Roland Rau, University of Rostock; Andreas Novak, University of Vienna; Stefan Wrzaczek, International Institute for Applies Systems Analysis; Thomas Fent, Vienna Institute of Demography.

20. Population Projections in Small Areas Combining the Forecast Error of a Time Series Method with the Linear Growth Trend Method (AiBi)Flávio Freire, UFRN - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte; Marcos Gonzaga, UFRN; Everton Lima, Unicamp; Henrique Costacurta , UFRN.

21. The Global Living Arrangements Database, 1960-2021Juan Galeano , Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona; Albert Esteve, Centre d'Estudis Demogràfics / Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona.

23. Vertical and Horizontal Rental Inequalities in Early 20th Century MadridAitor Garcia , Spanish Research Council; Diego Ramiro, Institute of Economics, Geography and Demography, Center for Human and Social Sciences, Spanish National Research Council; Michel Oris, University of Geneva; Stanislao Mazzoni, CSIC.

24. New estimates of contraceptive use and mode effectAnne Gauthier , Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute; Vladimira Kantorova, United Nations Population Division; Konstantin Schmandt, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute; Nursel Alkoç, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute.

25. European Demographic Challenges: Ageing Pathways and Migration PatternsDaniela Ghio , University of Catania; Bitonti Francesca, University of Catania; Angelo Mazza, University of Catania.

26. Parish Registers as a Genealogical Source for Demographic Study in a Rural Community of Guimarães (Portugal): Illegitimacy in the 17th and 18th Centuries.António Gonçalves , UNIVERSITY OF MINHO / INDEPENDENT RESEARCHER.

27. Trends and Heterogeneity in the Use of eContacts in Denmark: A Register-Based Study from 2005 to 2019Patrik Harnisch , Bielefeld University; Yana Vierboom, Princeton University; Ridhi Kashyap, Oxford University; Soghra Bohlourihajjar, None; Kaare Christensen, University of Southern Denmark; Karen Andersen-Ranberg, University of Southern Denmark; Anna Oksuzyan, Bielefeld University.

28. Population Change and Receipt of Informal Caregiving among Older U.S. Adults, 2000–2022Erin Ice , University of Texas-Austin.

29. Mapping Inequalities in Birth Registration across Indonesia: A Spatial Analysis of Social and Structural DeterminantsDesta Indriyantika , BPS-Statistics Indonesia; Estiana Prastiwi, BPS-Statistics Indonesia.

30. Uncovering Hidden Kin: Cross-National Evidence from KinmatrixLisa Jessee , University of Cologne; Lea Ellwardt, Universität zu Köln; Thomas Leopold, University of Cologne.

31. Infrastructure for Next Generation EU (Poster)Yuliya Kazakova , Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute.

32. Patterns of Ethno-Spatial Change in Bosnia and Herzegovina after 1991Sanja Klempic Bogadi, Institute for Migration Research; Vladimir Nikitovic , Institute of Social Sciences.

33. From Pill Dominance to Diversification: The Czech Contraceptive TransitionJirina Kocourková , Department od Demography and Geodemography, Faculty of Science; Jitka Slabá, Charles University - Faculty of Science.

34. Global Trends in the Demographics of Widowhood, 1970-2020Elder Lara Castañeda , Sciences Po Paris; Zachary Van Winkle, SCIENCES PO, OBSERVATOIRE SOCIOLOGIQUE DU CHANGEMENT.

35. Sixty Years of Changes in Census Methods and Harmonization Procedures in EuropeNathalie Le Bouteillec , Ined; Marie Digoix, INED.

36. Population Age Structures in Switzerland from a Sub-Country PerspectiveJean-Marie Le Goff , University of Lausanne.

37. Exploring the Role of Age Structure in Regional Population Change of the Visegrad GroupJózsef Lennert, ELTE Centre for Economic and Regional Studies; Csaba G. Tóth , ELTE Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.

38. American Students in China: A Comprehensive and Regional Analysis Based on Google Trends DataZai Liang , Xi'an Jiaotong University; Yang Zhou, Xi;an Jiaotong University.

39. Climate Change Denial and Gender Equality in Europe: A Multilevel Analysis of the European Social SurveyChristiane Lübke , OWL University of Applied Sciences and Arts; Anne-Kristin Kuhnt, University of Rostock.

40. Estimating Swedens Unregistred PopulationLena Lundkvist , Statistics Sweden; Karin Lundström, Statistics Sweden; Li Ma, Statistics Sweden.

41. Forecasting Caseloads of Global Acute Malnutrition in Kenya to Support Anticipatory Action: The Role of Spatial VariationRebecca Luttinen , The University of Texas at San Antonio; Molly E. Brown, University of Maryland College Park; Kathryn Grace, University of California Santa Barbara.

42. Getting People to Respond: Insights from an Incentive Experiment in Polish GGSAnna Maliszewska , SGH Warsaw School of Economics.

43. Engaging Communities and Monitoring Climate Change Impacts: The Eco_Pop_ER Database as a Model of Open ScienceMario Marino, University of Bologna; Francesca Tosi, University of Bologna; Francesco Scalone , Università di Bologna; Rosella Rettaroli, University of Bologna; Nadia Barbieri, Lund University.

44. KINSHIP TRANSITIONS among OLDEST OLD in LATIN AMERICATallyta Martins , Center for Regional Development and Planning; Simone Wajnman, Center for Regional Development and Planning; Cassio Turra, Center for Regional Development and Planning; Eduardo Araújo, Center for Regional Development and Planning.

45. Shared Lifetime and Years of Shared Life LostAmanda Martins de Almeida , Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research.

46. Turning Hazard Models Inside OutDavid Melamed ; Chivon Fitch, University of Tampa.

47. Demographic Ageing and Shift in Voting Power Dynamic in Sweden, 1976–2022Milos Milovanovic , Linkoping University.

48. Longevity and Environmental Perception: Introducing Life Years without Pollution or Noise Across EuropeNatalija Miric , University of Belgrade Faculty of Geography Department of Demography; Aleksandra Anic, University of Belgrade-Faculty of Economics and Business.

49. Lifetime Exposure to Kin with Disability in European CountriesMargherita Moretti , Bocconi University; Nicoletta Balbo, Bocconi University; Marco Tosi, University of Padua; Diego Alburez-Gutierrez, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research.

50. The Municipality Transition Index and Its Impact on Higher Education Institutions' Attractiveness in ItalyAlessio Muscillo , Universitas Mercatorum; Angelo Facchini, IMT Lucca; Gabriele Lombardi, University of Florence; Alessandro Rubino, University of Bari.

51. Using the Stylized U-shaped Trend as an Empirical Selection Criterion for Homophily MeasuresAnna Naszodi , International Demographic Inequality Lab.

52. Fertility Decline and the Future of Finland’s Pension System: A Stochastic Scenario AnalysisTuija Nopola , Finnish Centre for Pensions.

53. Projecting Households under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Using a Life Course ApproachOrlando Olaya Bucaro , International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis; Samir KC, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.

54. Population Exposure to Temperature Extremes in Spain: Integrating High-Resolution Climate and Historical Population DataDariya Ordanovich , Spanish National Research Council; Ana Casanueva, Dept. Applied Mathematics and Computer Sciences, Universidad de Cantabria; Diego Ramiro, Institute of Economics, Geography and Demography, Center for Human and Social Sciences, Spanish National Research Council.

55. Same-Sex Marriage around the World: Statistical Reporting, Trends and PatternsJosé Antonio Ortega , Universidad de Salamanca.

56. Housing Demand in the Metropolitan Region of Barcelona: Prospective Insights from Headship Rates and Changing Household BehaviorKaren Ortega Burgos , Centre d'Estudis Demogràfics; Juan Antonio Módenes Cabrerizo, Professor.

57. Education Expansion, Urbanization and Fertility Change in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Decomposition ApproachFabio Pastor , Université de Strasbourg / UCLouvain.

58. Projections of Children's Exposure to Multiple Environmental HazardsJonas Peisker , International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis; Roman Hoffmann, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA).

60. Uncovering Migrant Fertility Patterns through Consumer DataFrancesco Rampazzo , University of Manchester; Micol Morellini, University of Oxford; Ridhi Kashyap, Oxford University; Douglas Leasure, University of Oxford; Melinda Mills, University of Oxford; Jason Bell, Penn State; Andrew Stephen, University of Oxford.

61. Child Fostering in Nairobi and Kampala, a Reflection of the Social Evolutions in East AfricaPierre SCHLEGEL , INED.

62. Future Vulnerability and Population Dynamics in BrazilCésar Silva , IBGE.

63. Probabilistic Population Projection for Brazil Subnational AreasFelipe Souza, UFRN; Flávio Freire, UFRN - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte; Everton Lima, Unicamp; Marcos Gonzaga , UFRN.

64. The Demography and Social Gradient of Online Dating in ItalyFrancesco Tata , University of Florence; Daniele Vignoli, University of Florence; Raffaele Guetto, University of Florence.

65. Recovering Prevalences under Missing Data and Sample Selection Using Causal Inference, External Data and Bias AnalysisMax Thaning , Swedish Institute for Social Research; Siddartha Aradhya, Stockholm University.

66. Conceptualising and Measuring Internal Displacement in UkraineOrsola Torrisi , Department of Sociology, McGill University; Brienna Perelli-Harris, University of Southampton; Nataliia Levchuk, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research; Volodymyr Sarioglo, Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Life Quality Research; Maryna Ogay, Pt.

67. The Statistical Challenges of Designing Accelerated Longitudinal Cohort Studies: Insights from the Guide ProjectMassimo Ventrucci; Francesca Tosi, University of Bologna; Giulio Ecchia, University of Bologna; Giovanni Righetto , Univesity of Bologna; Matthew J Wakefield, University of Bologna.

68. Cross-border reproductive care in times of pandemic and ART legislation changes in European countries: a population based studyAdéla Volejníková , Charles University; Anna Štastná, Charles University; Jirina Kocourková, Charles University.

69. Extending Continuous Time Microsimulation by Rules of Intergenerational Transmission: An Illustrative Application to HomeownershipFelix von Heusinger , DIW, HU Berlin; Sabine Zinn, DIW Berlin, HU Berlin.

70. How Divorce Impacts Health and Mortality in Germany: Evidence from the Combined Demographic Histories (CDH)Katharina Werhan , Deutsche Rentenversicherung Bund; Michaela Kreyenfeld, Hertie School; Carla Rowold, Hertie-School; Sarah Schmauk, Berlin-Brandenburg Academy of Sciences and Humanities.

71. Period and Cohort Fertility Changes under the Pressure of Pronatalist Policy in Putin's Russia: 2006-2025Sergei Zakharov , University of Strasbourg.

72. Beyond Delayed Transitions : Young Adult Co-Residence with Parents in Contemporary EuropeJana Zavodska , Masaryk University.

73. Accounting for Climate Feedback in Population ProjectionsJakob Zellmann , University of Bologna; Mikhail Maksimenko, University of Bologna; Itza Olguín, Vienna Institute of Demography; Raya Muttarak, University of Bologna; Rosanna Gualdi, University of Bologna; Sirinya Kaikeaw, University of Bologna.

74. Family Structure Differences and Trend Projections of Elderly Care Gaps in ChinaYun Zhang .

75. Genetic Ancestry-Based Assortative Mating within the U.S. Black and Hispanic PopulationsLuyin Zhang ; Sam Trejo, Princeton University; Dalton Conley, Princeton University.

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