Education, Origin and Demographic Change: Regional Scenarios for Spain, 2021–2071

Osama Damoun El Yemlahi , Centre d'Estudis Demogràfics
Dilek Yildiz, International Institute for Applied Systems Anlaysis
Samir KC, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Spain is a lowest-low fertility and low-mortality country in which international migration have become the main component of growth in the last two decades, after two unprecedented migration waves peaking in 2007 and 2019, counting 8.8 million foreign born inhabitants (18,2%) in 2024. For younger generations, e.g. those born in 1986-1995 the share rises to 26%. In the most developed regions the foreign-born share surpasses 20% reaching 40% for the younger generations. The diversification of different generations by origin and educational attainment, accelerates inter and intra generational differences in terms of origin composition, educational attainment and regional polarization. A stronger impact on younger generations has implications for the progression of social change through generational succession, as postulated by the theory of demographic metabolism. Our main aim is to focus on the development of these future heterogeneities in Spain that could help us understand future social inequalities. Through a multi-state cohort component model, we project population by place of birth (Spain and four world regions) by three levels of educational attainment for 17 NUTS-2 Spanish regions. We apply several projection scenarios, with preliminary results indicating a general improvement in educational attainment, though to a lesser extent than anticipated unless the educational composition of international immigrants changes substantially. Central and South Americans further consolidate their position as the principal foreign-origin groups over time, while the size and share of Spanish-born population declines less sharply than suggested by official projections.

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 Presented in Session P8. Demographic Trends, History, Data and Methods