Population at Risk: An Integrated Framework for Volcanic Risk Assessment applied to the Mt. Vesuvius Area

Federico Benassi, Department of Political Sciences, University of Naples Federico II, Italy
Pierfrancesco Dellino, Department of Earth and Geoenvironmental Sciences, University of Bari Aldo Moro, Italy.
Thaís García-Pereiro, University of Bari Aldo Moro
Isabella Lapietra , University of Bari
Anna Paterno

This study presents an integrated multidimensional framework for assessing volcanic risk in the Mt. Vesuvius area, one of the most hazardous volcanic zones in Europe due to its proximity to densely populated urban centers. Building on the UNDRR definition of risk as the product of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, the research combines Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and statistical techniques to evaluate long-term hazard from pyroclastic density currents (PDCs), population and building exposure, and social and physical vulnerability at the enumeration area (EA) level. Hazard was assessed using PDC impact parameters and standardized through factor analysis. Exposure was calculated via population and building density, while vulnerability was derived from demographic, socioeconomic, and structural building data using principal component analysis. The resulting indices were mapped and integrated to produce a volcanic risk classification ranging from very low to very high. Results show that nearly 90% of the population and over 92% of buildings in the study area are located in zones exposed to volcanic risk, with significant concentrations of high and very high risk in municipalities such as Sant’Anastasia, Portici, Ercolano, and Napoli. The framework supports cost-benefit analysis, land-use planning, and emergency preparedness, offering a replicable methodology for local-level risk assessment. The study highlights the urgent need for targeted mitigation strategies and long-term planning in multi-source volcanic regions like Campania, which also includes Campi Flegrei and Ischia Island.

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 Presented in Session P8. Demographic Trends, History, Data and Methods