Estimating Swedens Unregistred Population

Lena Lundkvist , Statistics Sweden
Karin Lundström, Statistics Sweden
Li Ma, Statistics Sweden

This study presents a demographic approach that estimates the number of individuals present in Sweden without personal or coordination numbers—commonly referred to as the unregistered population. Commissioned by the Swedish government, the Swedish Tax Agency in collaboration with Statistics Sweden applied indirect demographic methods based on administrative data on deaths and births from 2013 to 2023. The first method uses mortality data, assuming that unregistered individuals have similar age-specific mortality rates as registered residents. Based on 3,563 recorded deaths without personal numbers during the period 2013-2023, this method enables estimation across all age groups. The second method focuses on 16,487 children born without personal numbers during the same period. By assuming comparable fertility rates between registered and unregistered women aged 15–45, the number of unregistered women of childbearing age can be inferred. In addition, the report considers temporary populations—such as tourists, short-term visitors, and foreign workers—by converting their presence into full-year equivalents based on average stay duration. Though not included in the core estimate, these groups contribute to the broader understanding of population presence. The results indicate that the number of unregistered individuals in Sweden in 2023 ranges between 110,000 and 185,000, excluding temporary visitors. Each method carries assumptions and limitations, but together they offer a triangulated estimate of a population segment invisible in official statistics.

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 Presented in Session P8. Demographic Trends, History, Data and Methods