Future Vulnerability and Population Dynamics in Brazil

César Silva , IBGE

Climate change is already underway, with slow- and rapid-onset events driving disasters and producing tangible impacts that are expected to intensify in the future. Adaptation and vulnerability will occur within a changing society, where social and demographic dynamics shape resilience capacities. Yet, vulnerability indicators often treat social dimensions as static, focusing primarily on physical aspects. This study addresses that gap by projecting vulnerability indicators for Brazil in 2050, considering temporal and spatial variations in climate and social dynamics. Using multidimensional population projections aligned with three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and climate risk scenarios, the analysis spans 2022–2062 and incorporates age, sex, and education into fertility, mortality, and migration trends. Climate indicators include risks of floods, landslides, and water stress. Results highlight population decline, demographic aging, and education as key processes that will shape vulnerability in the future. The proposed vulnerability index reveals diverse risk patterns and spatial disparities across scenarios, offering insights for targeted adaptation strategies. Overall, the stagnation scenario reflected on SSP3 results in higher levels of vulnerability and SSP1 concentrates the lowest levels. The risks of landslides and floods are widespread across regions, whereas water stress vulnerability is concentrated in Northeast states.

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 Presented in Session P8. Demographic Trends, History, Data and Methods