Projections of Children's Exposure to Multiple Environmental Hazards

Jonas Peisker , International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Roman Hoffmann, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

As the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events increase, children's health, well-being, and development face growing threats. Children are particularly vulnerable to environmental hazards due to their physiological, cognitive, and social characteristics. Risks are further exacerbated by vulnerability as operationalized by the Human Development Index here. In this paper, we provide a global, grid-level analysis of environmental compound hazards, child population exposure, and vulnerability to assess future risk patterns under pre-industrial, historical, and future climate change scenarios with a focus on 2000--2050. The findings indicate that child population exposure increases in sub-Saharan Africa, while declining in South-East Asia and the Pacific. In absolute terms, compound multi-hazard exposure is concentrated on these three regions. We find that compound hazards disproportionately affect low-HDI locations, with the correlation increasing under climate change. Going beyond overall changes in hazard exposure, we plan to decompose risk changes into climate change and population components.

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 Presented in Session P8. Demographic Trends, History, Data and Methods