Accounting for Climate Feedback in Population Projections

Jakob Zellmann , University of Bologna
Mikhail Maksimenko, University of Bologna
Itza Olguín, Vienna Institute of Demography
Raya Muttarak, University of Bologna
Rosanna Gualdi, University of Bologna
Sirinya Kaikeaw, University of Bologna

Climate change has significantly impacted various meteorological phenomena, particularly increasing the frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves. The acceleration of global warming has led to 19 of the 20 hottest years occurring after 2000, with predictions indicating that heat waves will become even more frequent, intense, and long-lasting than historically observed. This alarming trend has increased the urgency to understand how these changes affect human health and behavior. There has been growing evidence that climate change affects demographic processes. For example, heat-related mortality is projected to rise globally, with only a modest decline in cold-related deaths despite rapid warming. In the case of fertility trends, recent scientific evidence points to an emerging consensus on the impact of rising temperatures. Studies across various regions worldwide have found that days with high average temperatures or positive temperature anomalies are associated with a decline in birth rates 8 to 10 months later. As well as on migration, there is growing evidence that climate events tend to impact internal and international migration processes worldwide. However, to the best of our knowledge, there is no research systematically investigating the effects that climate change will have on future population by jointly modeling its impact on mortality, fertility, and migration. This study aims to address this gap. We propose a novel method to integrate the effect of climatic circumstances into projections on fertility, migration and mortality rates. Those rates are combined in a cohort component model, finally resulting in population projection that account for climate feedback.

See extended abstract

 Presented in Session P8. Demographic Trends, History, Data and Methods