Fertility Decline in Europe: A Turning Point in French Fertility

Didier Breton, Université de Strasbourg
Sandra Florian , INED
John Tomkinson, Université de Lille

Over recent decades, France has exhibited one of the highest fertility rates in Western Europe, having a TFR close to replacement level. However, birth rates in France have been steadily declining since 2010. The French TFR has fallen from 2.03 children per woman in 2010 to 1.62 in 2024. Until recently the decline in period fertility has had little impact on completed cohort fertility, which has remained at around 2 children per women. Our analyses of French censuses from 2011 to 2022 suggest that fertility postponement and increases in childlessness, especially amongst women in cohabiting unions and highly educated women are driving this decline. Given recent trends, a recuperation of birth rates at older ages will be increasingly unlikely. We argue that fertility in France has reached a turning point at which further delays in fertility will translate, for the first time, into completed cohort fertility rates below replacement level. Keywords: Fertility decline, TFR, low fertility, childlessness, educational fertility gradient, France, Europe.

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 Presented in Session P8. Demographic Trends, History, Data and Methods