De jure vs de facto lockdown measures and domestic violence. Evidence from Italy

Lucia Dalla Pellegrina, University of Milano Bicocca
Matteo Migheli , Università degli Studi di Torino
Margherita Saraceno, University of Pavia

This paper investigates the impact of COVID-19-related restrictions on domestic violence (DV) in Italy, distinguishing between formal policy measures (de jure restrictions) and actual behavioral responses (de facto mobility reduction). We assess how regulatory and behavioral lockdowns affected DV incidence using a novel identification strategy that leverages the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker’s Stringency Index and reductions in traffic-related air pollutants. DV is measured using three complementary indicators: police reports for mistreatment and stalking, helpline calls, and Google Trends searches for DV-related terms. Fixed-effects panel regressions, including dynamic lag structures and time-varying covariates, reveal that DV increased significantly following restrictions. Crucially, the strongest effects occurred not immediately after the formal lockdown announcements but with a time delay, coinciding with actual mobility reductions. These time-sensitive effects are consistent with the exposure theory and support the relevance of mechanisms related to the relative power in the intimate relationships. Findings highlight the importance of anticipatory policy design: support services and interventions must be deployed promptly to mitigate the rising risk of DV during periods of forced cohabitation and social constraint.

See paper

 Presented in Session P8. Demographic Trends, History, Data and Methods