Is the Two-Children Norm Still Holding in Ultra-Low Fertility Societies? Insights from South Korea, Spain and Uruguay

Ignacio Pardo , Udelar
Wanda Cabella, Universidad de la República
Teresa Castro-Martín, CSIC
Seungwan Kim, UAB-CED
Teresa Martín-García, CSIC

Lowest-low fertility (TFR<1.3), once considered an exceptional and transitory phenomenon, now characterizes more than 30 countries worldwide (United Nations, 2025). While it remains uncertain whether this trend represents a plausible future for other low-fertility societies, examining the experiences of forerunner countries may provide valuable insights. A key research question is whether reproductive ideals and aspirations remain unchanged within an ultra-low fertility context. Recent research suggests that younger generations may be reconsidering the importance of having children amid broader transformations in values, gender relations, economic uncertainty, and life-course priorities. This study compares reproductive ideals and intentions in three societies currently experiencing ultra-low fertility –South Korea, Spain, and Uruguay– drawing on recent, comparable surveys: the South Korean Family and Fertility Survey (2021), the Spanish Fertility Survey (2018), and the Uruguayan Generations and Gender Survey (2022). Descriptive analyses examine the mean ideal family size (by gender, age group, and educational status), ideals of childlessness (particularly among younger cohorts), short-term childbearing intentions (by parity), and perceived consequences of having a(nother) child for different aspects of life (by gender). We further estimate statistical models separately for women and men to identify factors associated with fertility ideals and intentions. We use generalized linear Poisson models to analyze the ideal number of children, and binary logistic regression models to assess intentions to have a(nother) child within the next 3 years (2 in South Korea). Covariates include age, parity, partnership status (including LAT partnerships), educational level, employment status, number of siblings, and gender role attitudes.

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 Presented in Session P2. Families, Fertility, and the Life Course 2