The Profession of a Migrant: The Role of Spatial Mobility in Forming Migration Intentions

Ekaterina Sharepina, Scientific-Educational Laboratory on Socio-Demographic Policy, Vishnevsky Institute of Demography, HSE University
Olga Rodina , International Laboratory for Population and Health, HSE University
Mikhail Balaban, Scientific-Educational Laboratory on Socio-Demographic Policy, Vishnevsky Institute of Demography, HSE University
Polina Korzh, National Research University Higher School of Economics

This study analyzes how migration activity influences migration intentions in Russian urban contexts. It expands on prior research focused on socio-demographics and place-specific characteristics by incorporating migration activity—defined as the combination of lifetime permanent migration experience with various forms of spatial mobility, including temporary labor migration and current travel patterns. The analysis uses data from a street survey of 8,200 residents in 27 predominantly small and medium-sized cities across 13 Russian regions. Methodologically, it employs descriptive statistics and regression models to identify statistical relationships, supplemented by models with interaction terms to assess how different predictors mutually influence each other. Key findings show that past migration experience significantly increases the likelihood of future migration intentions. This effect is strongest among return migrants and long-term residents, whereas newcomers show less willingness to move again. Temporary labor migration is another significant predictor, though its impact is nuanced: the strongest migration intentions appear not among the mobile workers themselves, but among their family members. The specific destinations of labor trips show no significant correlation with migration intentions. The purpose of regular regional travel also matters: tourism correlates with stronger migration aspirations, while visiting relatives is associated with reduced desire to relocate. Interaction models confirm that different mobility forms can have complementary effects. These findings support existing literature on the complex relationship between mobility and migration intentions, while highlighting the need to consider Russia's specific urban context, particularly the prevalence of small and medium-sized cities in the sample.

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 Presented in Session P4. Migration, Migrants, and Mobility