Subjective Disability-Free Life Expectancy

Julien Bergeot
Luc Bissonnette, Université Laval
Julie Treguier, DIW Berlin

This study investigates subjective disability-free life expectancy (SDFLE)—the number of years individuals expect to live without health limitations—and compares it to subjective life expectancy (SLE) and their objective counterparts. Using data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), we document systematic differences by age, gender, and education. Both men and women underestimate their remaining lifetime, although the gap between subjective and objective life expectancy narrows with age. In contrast, individuals tend to overestimate the number of years they will live free of disability, and this bias increases with age. Women expect to live slightly longer and healthier than men, but the gender gap remains modest. These patterns reveal significant misperceptions about longevity and health. Individuals seem to internalize mortality risks more accurately than the risk of dependency, displaying an optimism bias regarding future health. Among men, the more educated show smaller misperceptions, with expectations that align more closely with objective measures. Such inaccuracies matter for long-term planning: people rely on their beliefs about life expectancy and health when making decisions about savings, retirement, and future care. Overestimating the duration of healthy life, while underestimating overall longevity, may lead to insufficient preparation for dependency and greater vulnerability to poverty or unmet care needs at older ages. By combining subjective and objective indicators, this study highlights how systematic misperceptions of longevity and health shape individuals’ expectations and economic behavior, with important implications for ageing and social policy.

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 Presented in Session 44. Variations in Healthy Ageing and Longevity