From Partners to Parents: Pre-Birth Income Inequalities and the Evolution of Maternal Absolute and Relative Income Trajectories after Childbirth

Flora Zhou , Erasmus University Rotterdam
Max Reichert, Erasmus Univeristy Rotterdam
Lili Vargha, University of Vienna

This study analyzes the absolute and relative income trajectories of Dutch first-time mothers over a 12-year period, from two years before to ten years after their first childbirth, using an intra-household bargaining framework. Using Group-Based Multi-Trajectory Modelling (GBMTM), the study aims to identify distinct groups based on the trajectories of mothers' absolute income, their relative contribution to total household income, and patterns of subsequent births. By jointly analyzing these dimensions, the study tests how mothers' household bargaining power in the two years before pregnancy is associated with the evolution of her bargaining power over ten years post-birth. The dataset comprises all first births in the Netherlands in 2013 using register data, with annual measurements of maternal absolute income and their share of total household income. The study contributes to the literature in two key aspects: first, it provides a typology of trajectories of absolute and relative maternal income within a household context over 10 years after first childbirth. Second, it explicitly tests the association between these typical trajectories and pre-pregnancy income dynamics. We identify 8 distinct trajectories, ranging from 'Lowest income with growing dependency' (characterized by high dependency and multiple births) to 'High-Income Autonomous Breadwinners' (with strong income growth and high autonomy). Pre-pregnancy income dynamics, such as absolute levels and slopes as well as the age of the mother strongly predict group membership, with higher pre-pregnancy bargaining power and older age associated with more autonomous post-birth trajectories.

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 Presented in Session 5. Flash Session Parenthood, Childbearing, and Family Formation