Union Dissolution in Sweden: A Driver of Declining Fertility Rates?

Gunnar Andersson, Stockholm University Demography Unit
Stefano Cantalini , University of Milan
Sofi Ohlsson-Wijk, Stockholm University

Recent research has shown that Sweden’s fertility decline during the 2010s was largely driven by decreasing propensities among childless cohabiting individuals to become parents. This decline in first-birth rates coincided with an equally strong and independent drop in marriage formation, while the formation of new cohabiting unions remained stable. In this study, we examine the dynamics of both married and cohabiting couples in Sweden, focusing on how their propensities to dissolve unions have evolved during this period of shifting family patterns. Using piecewise constant baseline intensity models estimated separately for women, men and couples, our findings indicate a modest increase in divorce risks over the 2010s—driven mainly by couples with common children. By contrast, among childless couples, divorce risks rose only marginally. Preliminary results on cohabitation dissolution also show no increase in dissolution rates among childless couples. Taken together, these findings suggest that childless cohabiting unions have become an increasingly common and enduring feature of contemporary Swedish family life.

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 Presented in Session 84. Union Trajectories, Separation and Divorce