Violent conflicts suppress climate-related mobility in Africa

Kristina Petrova, University of Mannheim
Karim Zantout, Karlsruhe University of Applied Sciences
Sandra Zimmermann, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Roman Hoffmann , International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

As climate change intensifies and conflicts persist across many regions, millions of people currently face overlapping crises with implications for migration. Prior research on climate-related migration has typically examined the impacts of climatic hazards and conflict in isolation, without accounting for their interplay. Yet, different distressing events can interact, producing compound effects that exacerbate the risks faced by affected populations. These interactions can lead either to heightened levels of forced migration or to increasing immobilization. In this study, we use georeferenced Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from Africa to measure short-term mobility, which we operationalize as the absenteeism of household members within the past 12 months. We combine these data with information on the occurrence of climatic hazards and various types of conflicts in respondents’ regions of residence, derived from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) and the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). Using comprehensive fixed-effects models, we find that droughts and floods are associated with increased household mobility. However, these effects are suppressed in times of conflict, when households appear to reduce their mobility, likely due to a desire to remain close to family members and constrained opportunities for movement. The influence of conflict on mobility is particularly strong in areas where violence has recently resumed or remains pervasive. Our findings highlight the importance of considering the compound and context-specific interactions between environmental stress and conflict when analyzing mobility responses and for designing targeted humanitarian and adaptation policies that address the intertwined nature of different risks.

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 Presented in Session P69. Environment, Conflicts and Population Dynamics