Projecting Future Temperature-Related Mortality in Europe under Global Climate Change

Rosanna Gualdi , University of Bologna
Risto Conte Keivabu, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Andrea Tamburini, IIASA
Raya Muttarak, University of Bologna

Ongoing climate change, coupled with population ageing, puts Europe at risk of experiencing a disproportionately large mortality burden. To date, there has been limited work exploring the implications of climate change on mortality outcomes under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), and to our knowledge, no studies have specifically examined how can be impacted differentially by changing in temperature in future. This study examines the effect of future extreme temperatures on mortality of older adults aged =65 years across 28 European countries at regional level (NUTS2). We use a combination of historical data (2014-2022), climate projections based on RCP and SSP scenarios to describe potential future trajectories of European mortality related to climate change-induced shifts in temperature (2030-2100). A Poisson regression model with fixed effects is employed to establish the baseline temperature–mortality relationships, followed by a counterfactual analysis in the SSP-RCP framework to assess future temperature-related deaths. Our findings reveal significant regional differences in temperature-related mortality across Europe, with an excess death rate projected to decline in Northern Europe but rise in Southern Europe, highlighting regional disparities exacerbated by climate change and different SSP-RCP scenarios.

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 Presented in Session P61. Flash Session Temperature Extremes, Mortality and Reproductive Health