Fertility Intentions in Uncertain Times: The Effect of Global Shocks in Italy, Argentina, the USA, and Germany

Arnstein Aassve, Bocconi University
Letizia Mencarini , Bocconi University
Chen Peng, Bocconi University
Samuel Plach, Bocconi University
Alonso Roman Amarales, Bocconi University
Maria Letizia Tanturri, University of Padova

Fertility has fallen below replacement in much of the world, and a persistent gap has opened between desired and realized childbearing. Using a four-country factorial (conjoint) survey in Italy, Germany, the United States, and Argentina (2025), respondents aged 20–44 evaluated randomized family scenarios that varied orthogonally across household resources (income, tenure, childcare, gender roles) and macro conditions (economic, democratic, climate, conflict). Average marginal component effects show income is the largest driver of near-term fertility intentions, with homeownership second and childcare availability producing graded gains; egalitarian role-sharing helps modestly. Macro stability, i.e., optimistic outlooks for the economy, democracy/liberties, climate, and war, adds nontrivial increments to intentions. Translating effects into PPP-adjusted monthly amounts, respondents would forgo about $1.1k to secure climate stability, about $1.0k to avert economic crisis, and about $1.1k to safeguard democracy/liberties, values comparable to full-time childcare. Policy levers that raise household security (income, housing) and lower uncertainty (macro stabilization, democratic resilience, climate action) are mutually reinforcing, and more promising, than narrow family-policy tools alone. The empirical analysis employs data from the FER-MO survey (FERtility MOtivation in disorienting and uncertain times), collected between May and June 2025.

See extended abstract

 Presented in Session 81. Fertility Intentions in Uncertain Times