Home Ownership and the Transition to Parenthood: A Study on Coresidential Couples in Finland in 2005–2019

Erik Carlsson , University of Turku
Jessica Nisén, University of Turku

The steep fertility decline observed in many high-income countries over the past 10–15 years has coincided with rising housing prices and increasing difficulties for young adults to establish themselves in the housing market. Yet relatively little research has explored the role of housing in the recent fertility decline. This study examines the relationship between housing tenure (owner-occupied vs. rented) and entry into parenthood, exploring potential mechanisms and differences across population subgroups. Using Finnish register data and event history analysis, we study the transition to parenthood among childless coresidential couples (either cohabiting or married) between 2005 and 2019. Preliminary results show that, in relative terms, first-birth transition rates have declined more among couples living in rented housing than among homeowners, a trend that is more pronounced in large and medium-sized cities. Furthermore, the negative association between unemployment and first-birth rates is stronger among couples in owner-occupied housing, a pattern that has intensified in the late 2010s compared to 2005–2009. We plan to expand the analyses by examining the following additional research questions: (i) Does the relationship between tenure type and first-birth rates vary by age or childhood housing tenure? (ii) Among homeowners, does the first-birth risk vary according to the level of debt relative to income? The results contribute new knowledge about the relationship between housing and fertility in the Nordic context, insights of potential relevance also for understanding fertility decline in other high-income countries.

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 Presented in Session 17. Fertility and Housing