Understanding Rome’s Demographic Trends: Urban Heterogeneity in the Context of Italy’s Population Decline

Emma Bellotti , Sapienza University
Cecilia Reynaud, Università Roma Tre
Marta Cipriani, Roma Tre University

Italy is undergoing a structural demographic decline, marked by a persistently negative natural balance and migration flows that no longer offset population losses. After decades of continuous growth, Rome has also entered a phase of population decrease, although the pace of decline remains slower than the national average. The city nevertheless retains distinctive demographic features, such as a more diverse age structure and a sustained ability to attract foreign residents. This paper analyses Rome’s demographic evolution in comparison with Italy and other major metropolitan areas, and explores the city’s internal heterogeneity across its 15 administrative subdivisions data. Census data (1971–2021) are used to examine long-term trends, while annual register data (2007–2024) provide a detailed view of recent changes. Population growth rates and their components—natural balance and migration—are calculated separately for Italian and foreign residents, together with structural indicators such as ageing index, old-age/child ratio, share of women of reproductive age, and incidence of foreign residents. A Parallel Factor Analysis (PARAFAC) is applied to a three-way matrix (indicators × administrative subdivisions × years) to summarise multidimensional trends into a limited number of trajectories. Results are expected to show that Rome shares the national pattern of demographic decline but with more pronounced short-term fluctuations and persistent internal diversity. The paper provides an integrated demographic interpretation of Rome as a case study for understanding how large urban systems adjust to population decline in a shrinking country.

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 Presented in Session 37. Internal Migration and Urbanization