Asylum in Italy: Longitudinal Evidence from Administrative Data

Marco Rizzo , ISTAT
Cinzia Conti, Istat
Elena Ambrosetti, Sapienza University of Rome

Driven by recent conflicts and geopolitical crises, asylum applications in Europe have returned to high levels, and Italy is a main destination country in the European Union. In 2024, Italy recorded the highest number of entries for international protection, surpassing the peak observed in 2017 during the European migrant crisis. This renewed relevance motivates a deeper examination of the life course of asylum seekers in Italy and the dynamics that unfold after arrival. We use administrative microdata held by Istat, derived from Ministry of the Interior information systems, covering asylum applications and decisions from 2016–2017 to the present. The paper aims to follows the cohorts who entered in 2016/2017 by linking records across multiple registers to trace internal mobility, track the evolution of residence permits and protection statuses, and observe key demographic events that mark individuals’ life courses. Methodologically, we employ multivariate techniques (e.g., clustering and related approaches) to derive core applicant profiles and compare them across cohorts, and we implement longitudinal tools suited to linked administrative data (event-history, multi-state/sequence perspectives) to study status transitions and territorial mobility. We expect to identify marked territorial differences in post-entry trajectories-shaped by migrant networks and local administrative capacity-and systematic differences in life-course events across key demographic groups. By shifting from a cross-sectional to a cohort-follow-up perspective, the contribution enriches the European picture with micro-level, subnational evidence for Italy, with implications for reception policy, the management of administrative workloads, and the planning of local services.

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 Presented in Session 46. Migrant Populations, Legal Trajectories and Civic Stratification