Joint Analysis of Mobility and Childbearing Intentions and Their Realization

Anna Janicka , University of Warsaw

The paper investigates the joint dynamics of residential mobility and childbearing intentions, as well as their subsequent realization across selected European countries. Using harmonized panel data from Waves 1 and 2 of the Generations and Gender Survey, the study examines how individuals coordinate plans for moving and childbearing, and how structural contexts shape the realization of these intentions. The analysis integrates the Theory of Planned Behavior with life-course and life-cycle perspectives, viewing mobility and fertility intentions as interrelated components of planned action embedded in institutional and housing-market settings. The paper extends existing studies that have examined the mobility and fertility intentions/realization separately or in parallel, without exploring how these two types of intentions co-evolve and translate into actual behaviors. A two-stage analytical strategy is applied. In the descriptive stage, cross-national patterns in the prevalence and overlap of mobility and fertility intentions, as well as their realization rates, are explored. The modeling stage employs Structural Equation Modeling to assess the joint formation and realization of intentions, allowing for correlated propensities and contextual moderation. Preliminary results reveal a positive association between intending to move and intending to have a child, reflecting coordinated life-course planning. Realization patterns suggest that moving facilitates fertility realization, while constrained housing or labor-market conditions hinder both. Cross-country differences suggest that supportive family policies and flexible rental markets promote dual realization, whereas institutional rigidity hinders it. Overall, the findings contribute to our understanding of how mobility and family formation processes are jointly shaped by individual agency and structural opportunity.

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 Presented in Session P2. Families, Fertility, and the Life Course 2