Reframing Policy Responses to Population Ageing: A Multi-Indicator Framework Based on Dynamic Measures

Alessio Cangiano , UNFPA
Elizabeth Wilkins, UNFPA
MIchael Herrmann, UNFPA
Andreas Backhaus, Federal Institute for Population Research (BiB)

Global population ageing, driven by declining fertility and increasing longevity, presents profound 21st-century policy challenges. Conventional measurement of this trend is dominated by the static Old-Age Dependency Ratio (OADR), which, by using a fixed chronological age (e.g., 65+), ignores concurrent, transformative improvements in population characteristics. This creates a potentially misleading narrative of dependency and risks flawed policy responses. This paper investigates how alternative, dynamic measures of ageing can provide a more accurate and nuanced basis for policy. It conducts a comparative analysis of four distinct measurement frameworks: traditional chronological measures, prospective measures incorporating longevity, economic measures based on the generational economy, and health-based measures. The analysis reveals that all indicators offer different but complementary perspectives. Prospective measures, for instance, suggest a slower pace of 'effective' ageing by indexing 'old age' to remaining life expectancy, while National Transfer Accounts provides a realistic measure of economic dependency based on actual production and consumption profiles. The main contribution of this paper to the literature is to propose a multi-indicator policy framework to inform adaptive policies on pensions, healthcare, and labour markets that reflect the evolving human capital of ageing populations across different economic and social contexts.

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 Presented in Session 6. Demographic Change and the Making of European Welfare Policy