FROM EMIGRATION TO IMMIGRATION: NEW PATTERNS AND CHALLENGES IN LITHUANIA

Justina Jakštiene , Lithuanian Centre of Social Sciences, Institute of Sociology

Lithuania is undergoing rapid demographic changes that reshape not only population size but also the composition of its workforce and the focus of public policy. Since regaining independence, Lithuania has faced severe depopulation caused by working-age emigration, declining fertility, and relatively high male mortality. However, in recent years, a marked shift in migration patterns has emerged: since 2019 year, immigration flow have consistently exceeded emigration, signaling Lithuania transition from a sending country to a receiving one. This change has been driven by several factors, including the crises in Belarus and Ukraine, labour shortages that encouraged migration from neighboring states, and shifts in Lithuania’s economic structure. The number of foreign nationals employed in Lithuania rose 2.6 times between 2018 and 2024, accounting for approximately 10% of all employed persons. The paper analyses how this new migration wave affects demographic indicators, labour-market balance and policy decisions. It also outlines three potential policy paths – from uncontrolled inflows to balanced migration policies aligned with technological change, or restrictive approaches limiting both mobility and innovation. Preliminary results suggest a dual effect: immigration brings demographic relief and short-term stability but exposes weaknesses in integration systems. Long-term outcomes will depend on how well newcomers are included in communities and access housing, education and healthcare. While immigration helps reduce labour-force shortages and slows population decline, its long-term effect depends on integration quality — language learning, housing, access to social and health services, and inclusion in local communities.

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 Presented in Session P4. Migration, Migrants, and Mobility