Transitions to Adulthood: Experimental Evidence from a Conjoint Study

Arnstein Aassve , Bocconi University
Peter Fallesen, Rockwool Foundation
Letizia Mencarini, Bocconi University
Chen Peng, Bocconi University

Across Europe, the transition to adulthood has become increasingly uncertain and delayed. Classical markers such as completing education, entering stable employment, leaving the parental home, forming partnerships, and becoming a parent now occur later, more unevenly, and less universally than in the past. This study investigates how individuals define what it means to “be an adult” in contemporary societies and how these perceptions differ across generations, genders, and welfare regimes. Using a cross-national conjoint experiment conducted in Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland, and Germany, we identify which life-course markers most strongly shape judgments of adulthood. Respondents evaluate pairs of hypothetical profiles that vary randomly in attributes such as age, employment, education, partnership status, parenthood, housing, financial independence, and psychological autonomy. The experiment involves approximately 3,000 respondents per country, stratified into younger (18–30) and older (48–60) cohorts, allowing for cross-generational comparison. Average Marginal Component Effects (AMCEs) are estimated to quantify the relative importance of each attribute. We expect economic and housing independence to be the strongest predictors of perceived adulthood, while partnership and parenthood have declined in importance. Generational differences are anticipated, with younger cohorts valuing self-realization and psychological autonomy, and older cohorts emphasizing stability and family formation. By linking perceptions of adulthood to welfare contexts, the study advances comparative life-course research and provides policy insights on youth autonomy, intergenerational fairness, and the institutional conditions that enable independent adulthood.

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 Presented in Session 106. Flash Session Becoming an Adult in the 21st Century