Unexpected Compression of the Life Course: Family Formation in the United States during and after the Second World War

Lei Yan, UBC
Junyang Zhang, Peking University
Guy Stecklov , University of British Columbia

When time is subtracted from the life course, can individuals compress their remaining years to catch up to normative demographic speed, or does lost time translate into permanently foregone opportunities? We examine this question using World War II military service of US males as a natural experiment in temporal contraction. Drawing on linked 1930-1950 full-count U.S. census data, we employ sibling fixed effects to compare family formation patterns between veteran and non-veteran brothers. Our preliminary findings reveal partial elasticity in the life course: veterans demonstrate clear compression behaviors—accelerated post-war fertility and reduced birth spacing—yet remain disadvantaged five years after war's end. Veterans show significantly delayed age at first birth (1.8 years), lower probability of having children (9 percentage points), and fewer total children (0.5). However, post-war fertility increased by 0.71 children among veterans compared to non-veteran brothers, and birth spacing compressed by two-thirds of a year, demonstrating catch-up effort. These patterns suggest the life course can be at least partially compressed in response to temporal shocks. Our results shed light on life course plasticity and extend demographic theories of timing by examining temporal contraction as the inverse of longevity-driven life course expansion.

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 Presented in Session P3. Families, Fertility, and the Life Course 3