Fathers’ and Mothers’ Joint Longitudinal Earnings Trajectories before and after First Birth in Austria

Lili Vargha , University of Vienna
Nadia Steiber, University of Vienna
Rudolf Winter-Ebmer, Johannes Kepler University of Linz

This paper analyzes long-term earnings trajectories of Austrian first-time parents from a dyadic perspective, covering four years before and twenty-one years after the birth of their first child. Using Group-Based Multi-Trajectory Modeling (Nagin et al 2018) and longitudinal administrative data, we jointly model mothers’ and fathers’ typical earnings trajectories alongside parity progression. This joint approach captures the simultaneous development of both parents’ earnings, extending prior research that has largely focused on within-couple earnings inequality or mothers’ relative income shares, often neglecting absolute income levels. Our dataset includes all first births in Austria between 1990 and 1997 (N=160464), allowing a comprehensive analysis of within- and between-couple differences in earnings trajectories across the transition to parenthood. After identifying typical joint earnings trajectories, we examine how trajectory group membership varies by the couple’s socio-economic characteristics, particularly the educational constellation of the parents. Results show that when the mother is more educated, couples have a higher probability of becoming dual earners more rapidly. In contrast, when the father is more educated, couples are more likely to experience a more gradual return to dual earning or maintain a stable male-breadwinner pattern. Couples in which both partners have tertiary education follow less specialized earnings patterns than less-educated homogamous couples. While primarily exploratory, our study provides new insights into the development of income inequalities within and between couples after childbirth, highlighting how absolute and relative resources shape parental earnings trajectories from a dynamic couple perspective

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 Presented in Session 14. Flash Session Inequality Dimensions of Human Capital