When Borders Close: How the Covid-19 Pandemic Reduced over-Coverage among Nordic Migrants in Sweden

Eleonora Mussino, Umeå University
Bruno Santos , Universidad Politécnica de Cartagena
Sven Drefahl, Stockholm University
Andrea Monti, Mälardalen University

This study examines the impact of population over-coverage among foreign-born individuals in Sweden between 2003 and 2022, with a focus on changes during the COVID-19 pandemic. Over-coverage occurs when emigrants or deceased individuals remain registered as residents, leading to biased estimates of demographic and economic rates. Using Swedish administrative registers and applying both the cross register-trace and Multiple Systems Estimation (MSE) approaches, we estimate the extent of over-coverage during the pandemic. Our results confirm that overall over-coverage remained relatively stable during 2020 and 2021, but declined sharply for individuals born in Norway and Denmark—two groups with traditionally high circular mobility with Sweden. The exceptional reduction in over-coverage for these groups likely reflects the temporary disruption of cross-border commuting and the improved detection of out-migrants due to pandemic-related restrictions. For other migrant groups, including those from non-Nordic origins, changes were minor and largely consistent with pre-pandemic trends. The findings underscore the need to consider how international crises and border regimes affect the accuracy of population registers, especially for highly mobile groups. By extending earlier analyses of over-coverage in Sweden, this study demonstrates how the quality of register-based statistics is sensitive of short-term mobility disruptions.

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 Presented in Session P4. Migration, Migrants, and Mobility