Checking Up on the Engine of Social Change: a Cohort Decomposition and Counterfactual Approach across Global Societies

Leo Azzollini , University of Trento
Francesco Billari, Bocconi University

Cohort replacement has long been seen as a driver of social change. Yet, traditional approaches to disentangling cohort effects face the Age–Period–Cohort problem and often rely on strong assumptions. We propose a non-parametric decomposition and counterfactual approach that partitions social change between two time points into four components: cohort replacement (R), demographic composition (C), attitude adjustment within cohorts (A), and their interaction (I). This “check engine” approach complements more sophisticated models by offering a descriptive tool that compares different potential drivers of social change. We apply this approach to analyse changes in secularisation in the US (General Social Survey), LGBT rights in Southern Europe (European Social Survey), and gender equality across South America, Africa, and Asia (Integrated Value Survey). We show how cohort replacement typically is an engine of social change, but it can be counterbalanced, reinforced, or unaffected by attitudinal change within existing cohorts.

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 Presented in Session 99. Formal and Conceptual Approaches to Kinship, Generations and Social Change