Stable Intentions in Times of Declining Births? Trends in Long-Term and Short-Term Fertility Intentions in Germany, 2021-2024

Martin Bujard , Federal Institute for Population Research
Carmen Friedrich, Federal Institute for Population Research

In the aftermath of the global COVID-19 pandemic, fertility rates in Europe reached historically low levels. Increased uncertainty during multiple crises – COVID-19, Russian war against Ukraine, inflation, and climate change – is discussed as a cause. This study investigates whether the recent fertility decline reflects a temporary postponement of childbearing or a more permanent reduction in fertility intentions. Using data from three waves (2021-2024) of the German Family Demography Panel Study (FReDA), we analyze developments in the intended number of children and short-term fertility intentions and compare them with Total Fertility Rates (TFR) for the same period. We present descriptive statistics and estimate multivariable models (Poisson and linear probability models) separately by gender and stratified by education and subjective financial situation. Results show that while the average intended (1.7-1.8) and ideal number of children (2.2) remained stable, short-term fertility intentions declined notably. Among individuals aged 30-39 — the main childbearing age group — the share intending to have a/another child within the next three years decreased from 28% in 2021/22 to 24-25% in 2023/24, with the strongest decline among childless women (10 percentage points). The drop is particularly pronounced among men with lower education or financial difficulties. These findings support the “postponement hypothesis” and remarkably stable long-term fertility intentions: multiple crises have created a climate of uncertainty, leading individuals to postpone childbearing, but maintain their long-term fertility plans. However, postponing childbearing carries the risk that some may not realize their desire to have a/nother child due to advanced age.

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 Presented in Session P1. Families, Fertility, and the Life Course 1