Low fertility in Scotland. Is there a scope for policy interventions?

Francesca Fiori , University of Strathclyde
Daniele Vignoli, University of Florence
Raffaele Guetto, University of Florence

Fertility in Scotland has reached a historic low, raising concerns about future population sustainability. The Scottish Government aims to reduce barriers that prevent individuals from starting a family, assuming that improved conditions would encourage people to have more children. This study tests that assumption using Factorial Survey Experiments (FSE) with respondents of childbearing age living in Scotland. The FSE presents a series of vignettes describing a hypothetical couple with one child considering a second, varying the couple’s characteristics and combinations of family policy measures. After each vignette, respondents assess how likely the couple is to realise their fertility intentions. Regression models address two questions: 1. Do fertility intentions respond to policy changes? 2. How do family policies affect different groups (e.g., by gender, parity, or socio-economic status)? Findings show that extended parental leave including fathers and free childcare from an early age are the most effective measures in helping couples realise their fertility intentions - with stronger effects for women. These policies not only support young families’ wellbeing but also promote gender equality and child development. By contrast, cash transfers alone have limited impact.

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 Presented in Session 117. Flash Session Families, Policies and Demographic Change