Life Expectancy Plateau in the United States and Divergence from Peers: The Impact of Changing Mortality Timing

Viorela Diaconu, Vienna Institute of Demography
Tamara Vaz , Vienna Institute of Demography
Marc Luy, Vienna Institute of Demography

Period life expectancy (PLE) is the most widely used indicator for assessing mortality improvements, but its trends can be influenced by factors beyond direct mortality, including cohort, heterogeneity, and especially tempo effects, which are often overlooked. These additional factors are often overlooked when interpreting changes in PLE. In recent years, gains in life expectancy have slowed in many high-income countries, particularly in the United States. While much research has focused on causes such as drug overdoses, chronic diseases, and maternal mortality, the role of changes in the timing of deaths has received less attention. This study addresses this gap by assessing whether shifts in the timing of deaths have contributed to the recent stagnation in U.S. life expectancy and compares these findings with those in Japan and Switzerland, where longevity continues to increase. Using HMD mortality data from 2003 to 2019, the postponement or advancement of deaths is measured by the total mortality rate (TMR). A TMR above 1.0 indicates increased mortality, while a value below 1.0 shows a decline. The primary feature of the TMR is that its deviations illustrate how shifts in deaths impact life expectancy during a specific period. Therefore, assuming a proportional shift, the TMR can be used directly to adjust the PLE for these shifts. To isolate the impact of timing, tempo-adjusted life expectancy (LE*) is calculated and trends are compared across countries. By highlighting the significance of timing effects, this study provides a more nuanced interpretation of international life expectancy comparisons.

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 Presented in Session P5. Health, Mortality, and Ageing 1