The Fertility of Refugees in Germany

Andreas Backhaus , Federal Institute for Population Research (BiB)
Lena Detlefsen, Kiel Institute for the World Economy
Tobias Heidland, Kiel Institute for the World Economy

Germany experienced a large influx of refugees around 2015/16. This paper examines the fertility behavior of approx. 2,500 refugee women using multiple samples and waves of the German Socio-Economic Panel. We construct a sample of refugee women from five countries of origin: Afghanistan, Eritrea, Iran, Iraq, and Syria. The data comprise retrospective information on women's childbearing five years prior to and since their arrival in Germany. We find that fertility rates of refugee women are stable prior to arrival in Germany, then peak in the first post-arrival year, followed by a steady decline. This pattern is consistent across countries of origin and educational backgrounds. Compared to fertility rates in the countries of origin, refugee women in Germany exhibit heterogeneous pre- and post-arrival patterns. A survival analysis by parity shows that refugee women arriving with one child transition most rapidly to a second birth. While first births dominate the immediate post-arrival period due to the large share of childless women, second and third births increasingly drive refugee fertility over subsequent years.

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 Presented in Session P1. Families, Fertility, and the Life Course 1