No Worries? Multiple Crises, Future Economic Expectations and Fertility Intentions

Bernhard Riederer , Vienna Institute of Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences

During the last years, the onset of multiple crises led to a further decline in fertility rates across European low fertility countries. Prior demographic research has shown that the COVID pandemic and recent economic insecurities affected both childbearing behaviour and short-term fertility intentions. The present study adds to this research by analysing the role of subjective appraisals of the most important recent societal and economic developments for intended fertility. Using data from the pilot wave of the Austrian Socio-Economic Panel (ASEP), we focus on (a) worries about inflation, climate change, peace, and immigration as well as (b) future economic expectations regarding both the personal financial situation and the national economy. Examining their associations with the number of intended future children and the intentions to become a child within the next three years, our findings demonstrate the relevance of recent crises and the “shadow of the future” for intended fertility.

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 Presented in Session P3. Families, Fertility, and the Life Course 3