Fertility Goals, Pregnancy Attempts and Birth Probabilities Across Reproductive Ages

Eva Beaujouan , University of Vienna, Wittgenstein Centre
Shalini Singh, University of Vienna

Birth probabilities decline after age 35, even in late-fertility countries. However, it remains unclear whether this reflects reduced childbearing desires or increased difficulty conceiving at older ages. This study explores fertility intentions and reproductive behaviour across ages using Round 2 of the Generations and Gender Surveys data from 15 countries. Definitive short-term intentions to have children drop sharply after 35. Active attempts to conceive decline later, while the chance of a first or second birth is very low beyond 40. As women age, those with strong intentions are more likely to be trying to conceive. Yet, uncertainty and intentions not to have (further) children rise among women 35+ who are trying, which is only little explained by perception of own infertility. The study highlights significant variation in reproductive experiences by age, marked by heightened uncertainty and longer times to conception in later reproductive years.

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 Presented in Session 116. Life-Course Determinants of Fertility Intentions and Realization