The Future of Births via Medically Assisted Reproduction in Italy: Scenarios to 2050

Alessandra Burgio, Italian National Institute of Statistics - Istat
Cinzia Castagnaro, Italian National Institute of Statistics - Istat
Gustavo De Santis, Dept of Statistics
Daniele Vignoli, University of Florence
Agnese Vitali , University of Trento

In low and late-fertility countries, such as Italy, Medically Assisted Reproduction (MAR) is set to play a growing demographic and social role and is increasingly considered as part of pronatalist policies. In this contribution we project the prevalence of births resulting from medically assisted reproduction (MAR) in Italy up to 2050. We rely on population-based projections combining age-specific fertility rates and MAR-specific birth shares using administrative data and cohort-component methodology. In 2023, 4.3% of live births in Italy were conceived through MAR, rising sharply with maternal age (17.2% for mothers =40). Under nine projection scenarios combining three assumptions for mean maternal age at childbirth (MAC) and age-specific MAR prevalence, MAR births could reach 11–12% of all births by mid-century and potentially exceed 15% under sustained trends. Population ageing alone has minimal impact, while delayed childbearing and increased MAR uptake contribute roughly equally to projected increases. While providing opportunities for couples to achieve desired family size, increased MAR use reflects persistent barriers to earlier childbearing. Policies should balance MAR provision with interventions targeting youth economic security, housing, and work–family reconciliation to support sustainable fertility trajectories.

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 Presented in Session 89. Flash Session Medically Assisted Reproduction and Infertility