Immigration and changing heat exposure disparities in the United States since 1980

Abbie Robinson , The Pennsylvania State University
Brian Thiede, Pennsylvania State University
Lisa Thalheimer, IIASA
Gregor Zens, IIASA

Extreme heat exposure is driven by both climate and population dynamics, yet the relative impacts of each component remain unclear. As public and policy attention to heat-related risks increases, understanding how environmental and population change shape exposure is crucial to identifying disparities in extreme heat. Drawing on five decades of geolocated data, we use decomposition methods to address two research objectives. First, we estimate how shifts in local temperature and the geographic distribution of the (non)immigrant population contribute to changes in heat exposure in the continental United States from 1980 to 2020. Second, we evaluate heterogeneity in these changes by spatial and demographic variables (i.e., US census division, metropolitan status, region of origin). According to our decomposition, we find that higher heat exposure among the foreign-born population is primarily explained by changing place of residence, rather than increasing temperature. Exploring heterogeneity, however, reveals regional and subpopulation differences in the contributions of either dominant temperature or population redistribution effects. With clear inequalities by nativity, this descriptive analysis underscores the importance of integrating local climate and demographic dynamics in policies to effectively address heat exposure disparities in the US.

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 Presented in Session P13. Climate Shocks, Migration and Mobility