From Arrival to Aging : Migrant Mortality and Duration of Stay in Belgium, 1991–2021

Marina Vergeles , UCLouvain

This study investigates the relationship between duration of stay and migrant mortality in Belgium, using linked data from the 1991, 2001, and 2011 national censuses and mortality follow-up through 2021. The analysis covers the entire Belgian population, with migrants defined as individuals born outside Belgium who immigrated at age 18 or older. The large-scale dataset enables detailed analysis by origin group and across three migrant “waves,” offering insights into how mortality patterns evolve over time. We use age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) and hazard ratios (HRs) estimated using Cox proportional hazards models, with adjustments for origin, duration of stay, and socioeconomic characteristics. Socioeconomic variables were derived from census data and include employment status, housing conditions, and household composition. Preliminary findings from the 2011–2019 period reveal that the relationship between duration of stay and migrant mortality is non-uniform. Contrary to expectations, convergence with native mortality rates is not observed using ASDRs or HRs alone. However, after adjusting for socioeconomic status, convergence appears across all origin groups. Regional stratification shows consistent patterns across Flanders, Wallonia, and Brussels. This study contributes to understanding the long-term dynamics of migrant mortality and the role of duration of stay, highlighting the importance of socioeconomic context and the need to consider temporal and cohort dimensions in migrant health research.

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 Presented in Session 85. Migrant Mortality