Degrees of Inequality: How Educational Attainment Shapes Mortality Associated to Non-Optimal Temperatures in Different Provinces of Belgium.

Emmanuelle Kuijt , DEMO - UCLouvain

This study investigates how age and educational attainment influence temperature-related mortality among the elderly across Belgian provinces, addressing a critical gap in understanding climate-related health inequalities and their regional variation. While climate change poses a major global health threat, evidence on socioeconomic and demographic disparities in temperature-mortality associations remains limited. Educational attainment shapes vulnerability through multiple pathways: enhanced cognitive skills improve risk assessment and adaptation, and higher socioeconomic status enables protective investments. Prior research suggests that lower-educated populations may face greater risks, though findings vary across contexts. Using Belgian mortality data from 2000–2019 covering 1,372,682 deaths and a two-stage meta-regression framework, we examined temperature-mortality relationships across two separate analyses focusing on individuals aged 65+ across all 11 provinces. The first analysis stratified populations by age groups, while the second distinguished between low, secondary, and superior education levels. The meta-regression framework incorporated regional meta-predictors including socioeconomic indicators, environmental factors, and demographic characteristics to explain geographic variation in vulnerability. Results revealed strong age gradients, with adults aged 85+ experiencing substantially higher temperature-related mortality than younger elderly groups. Educational analyses showed that lower-educated populations faced elevated risks, with pronounced regional differences reflecting varying socioeconomic contexts across provinces. Cold-related mortality predominated across all groups. Meta-predictors explained part of the regional variation, with southern provinces showing consistently higher excess mortality across all socioeconomic strata. We are currently extending this research to obtain more granular district-level results, which will allow us to better understand how specific meta-predictors drive regional differences in temperature-related mortality vulnerability.

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 Presented in Session P61. Flash Session Temperature Extremes, Mortality and Reproductive Health