Converging Downward: The Diffusion of Low Fertility across Italian Municipalities, 2003–2022

Chiara Baldan , Sapienza University of Rome

Italy has long been characterised by persistently low fertility, but little is known about how fertility decline has diffused across local territories over time. Most demographic research has analysed fertility at the regional or provincial level, overlooking the fine-grained spatial dynamics that emerge at the municipal scale. Using data for all 7,899 Italian municipalities over 2003–2022, this study investigates the spatial diffusion of low fertility across the Italian territory through annual General Fertility Rates (births per 1,000 women aged 15–49). The analysis combines descriptive and spatial approaches. First, maps of municipal fertility across four five-year periods document the progressive territorial spread of low fertility. Second, municipality-specific OLS trends are used to assess whether fertility decline was spatially heterogeneous and whether municipalities with initially higher fertility experienced faster declines (ß-convergence). Third, annual Global Moran’s I statistics are used to evaluate changes of spatial concentration of fertility over time. Results show that fertility decline was near-universal across Italian municipalities, although heterogeneous in intensity. Municipalities with higher initial fertility experienced steeper declines, indicating a process of downward convergence. At the same time, spatial autocorrelation substantially weakened over the study period, while the share of low-fertility municipalities more than doubled. Together, these findings suggest that low fertility in Italy is no longer geographically concentrated but has progressively diffused across the national territory. By adopting a fine-scale spatial perspective, this study highlights dynamics that remain hidden in regional analyses and contributes to understanding the territorial restructuring of fertility decline in contemporary low-fertility contexts.

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 Presented in Session P1. Families, Fertility, and the Life Course 1