The Digital Shift: Working from Home and the Educational Gradient in Fertility Rates

Anna Matysiak , University of Warsaw
Karel Neels, University of Antwerp
Beata Osiewalska, University of Warsaw (1); Cracow University of Economics (2)

The rapid advancement of information and communication technologies has transformed labour markets, expanding opportunities for remote work. However, this flexibility remains unevenly distributed across educational groups. Highly educated workers are substantially more likely to work from home than their lower-educated counterparts, potentially enhancing their ability to reconcile paid work and family life. This study examines how increased availability of remote work influences fertility rates among high- and low-educated workers in Belgium. We use Belgian population register data (2000–2019) linked with regional indicators of remote work availability derived from the Labour Force Survey. Multistate discrete-time hazard models are applied to estimate the association between regional remote work levels and birth risks, followed by microsimulation techniques to assess how and to what extent expanded access to remote work may reshape the educational gradient in aggregate fertility. Preliminary results reveal pronounced educational and age-specific differences in the relationship between remote work availability and the transition to motherhood. Among low-educated women, higher regional availability of working from home is generally associated with lower first-birth risks. For medium- and highly educated women, the association shifts with age—from negative in their twenties and early thirties to positive from age 35 onwards. The effects for second and higher-order births are more articulated but consistently positive across all educational groups. These findings suggest that the expansion of remote work may reshape educational differences in the timing and intensity of childbearing. Ongoing microsimulation analyses will further explore the macro-level implications and potential redistributive effects on fertility patterns.

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 Presented in Session 83. Fertility, Education and Employment