Intergenerational Poverty Among Second-Generation Migrants

Abrar Bawati , Stockholm University

This study examines the intergenerational persistence of poverty (IGPov) in Sweden, focusing on differences between native and migrant-origin families. Although Sweden is often viewed as a high-mobility, low-inequality society, child poverty rates remain substantially higher among the second generation (G2) than among majority-Swedes. Prior research has linked this to parental employment instability, lower educational attainment, and structural barriers such as labour-market exclusion and residential segregation. While intergenerational mobility in Sweden has been extensively studied, most work concerns income rather than poverty and focuses on the native-born population. We extend this literature by applying sibling correlations, a measure capturing shared family and community influences, to poverty outcomes. This approach provides an omnibus indicator of how strongly family background predicts individuals’ risk of poverty, without requiring complete parental data. Using Swedish population registers covering all individuals born between 1977 and 1987, we analyse 487,663 majority-Swedes and 48,966 G2 individuals, defining poverty as an average equivalized household income below 60% of the national median at ages 30-35. Preliminary results show modest but meaningful within-family similarity in poverty. Siblings share the same poverty status about 10 percent more often than expected by chance. The sibling correlation (q) is slightly higher among G2 (0.128) than among majority-Swedes (0.096), suggesting stronger family influence on poverty. Importantly, heterogeneity within the G2 population is substantial, with sibling correlations ranging from 0.075 to 018 across parental-origin groups. These findings highlight persistent structural inequality and the diverse mechanisms through which disadvantage is reproduced in Sweden’s universal welfare regime.

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 Presented in Session 12. Migration, Human Capital and Labour Markets