Assessing Subnational Disparities in Population Ageing in European Regions 1990-2022: A Comparative Analysis Using Chronological and Prospective Indicators

Markus Dörflinger , Federal Institute for Population Research
Sebastian Klüsener, The Federal Institute for Population Research (BiB)
michael muehlichen, Federal Institute for Population Research (BiB),

Europe’s population is ageing, yet this trend varies substantially across and within countries. From a prospective view on population ageing, regional differences in population ageing may also be related to disparities in life expectancy. Unlike chronological indicators of population ageing, which rely on constant old-age thresholds, the prospective age approach takes into account differences in remaining life expectancy as a proxy for health and healthcare demands. This study provides a comparative analysis of subnational trends in age-structure changes across 15 European countries (NUTS-3 level) between 1990 and 2022, using both chronological and prospective indicators of population ageing. Using Germany as our first case study, we find lower levels of population ageing in large cities across all macro-regions, and higher levels in other urban districts and rural districts, particularly in eastern Germany. East-West differences in population ageing appear to be largely driven by rapidly ageing areas outside of larger cities. Our results also show that, from a prospective view, rapidly advancing population ageing in eastern Germany is intensified by mortality disadvantages, particularly in rural areas. Expanding our analysis across Europe will provide further insights into the heterogeneity of population ageing among countries and regional differences within countries.

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 Presented in Session 44. Variations in Healthy Ageing and Longevity