Wealth and Childbearing. How Economic Resources Shape Reproductive Choices in Italy

Gianluca Truscello , Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
DANIELA BELLANI, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Maria Chiara Zanarotti, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore

Fertility decisions are strongly shaped by individuals’ and households’ economic resources availability, yet most empirical research relies on short-term indicators such as labour income or employment status. Wealth, reflecting intertemporal economic security, the capacity to absorb shocks, and the capacity of previous generations to transmit economic resources towards younger generation, has been recognized to play a key role in shaping reproductive choices. However, empirical evidence on the relationship between wealth and fertility remains limited, particularly when direct monetary measures are considered. This study seek to address this gap by investigating the association between household wealth and the transition to first birth in Italy. The Italian case is analytically relevant, as it features persistently “lowest-low” fertility alongside high and enduring economic inequality. Using longitudinal data from the Survey on Household Income and Wealth (SHIW), collected by the Bank of Italy between 1995 and 2022, this study empirically examine the association in question. Random-effects logistic regression models are estimated, where the dependent variable captures the occurrence of a first birth, and the main explanatory variables are household net worth and its dimensions - real assets, financial assets, and debts. Results show a positive association between household net worth and the probability of having the first child. Real assets emerge as the most significant dimension of this relationship, while financial assets and debts display non-statistically significant associations with the transition to first or second birth. Future extensions will integrate multidimensional wealth indicators to better capture long-term and intergenerational dimensions of economic security.

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 Presented in Session P3. Families, Fertility, and the Life Course 3