Leaving uncertainty behind: a cross-country analysis of fertility intentions

Lucas Augusto van der Velde , Warsaw School of Economics
Magdalena Smyk-Szymanska, Warsaw School of Economics
Wioletta Grzenda, SGH Warsaw School of Economics

Research conceptualizing resilience primarily focuses on how past and current events or perceptions of the future determine fertility decision-making, emphasizing adaptive responses to various threats. We employ data from the second wave of the Gender and Generation Program Survey (2024) concerning the following countries: Austria, Croatia, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Netherlands, Norway and United Kingdom. We deploy machine learning to analyze fertility intentions in relation with the personal resources and challenges faced by couples. Our results confirm the universal importance of certain factors, such as age and partnership status or the number of children already in the household.

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 Presented in Session 81. Fertility Intentions in Uncertain Times