The Immigrant Fertility Advantage Is Fading: Evidence from Italy and Spain

Erika Dicorato , University of Firenze and University of Bari
Jesús García Gómez, University of Salamanca
Thaís García-Pereiro, University of Bari Aldo Moro
Anna Paterno
Roberta Rutigliano, University of the Basque Country

In recent decades Southern European countries, particularly Italy and Spain, have become increasingly attractive destinations for international migration flows. Once countries of emigration, they have become key destinations for international migration, with foreign-born populations, significantly influencing overall demographic dynamics. This demographic shift has intersected with one of the most persistent challenges of Southern Europe: the decline in fertility. In this context, immigrant women have played a crucial role in sustaining birth rates, often displaying higher fertility than native women. Understanding the determinants of a changed immigrant TFR (Total Fertility Rate) is essential in order to gain a clearer view of future fertility dynamics. Using official data from ISTAT and INE, this study explores the evolution of immigrant fertility in the first two decades of the 21st Century through a comparative analysis between Italy and Spain. Then, using a counterfactual decomposition approach, we examine whether the variation in their TFR is due to the effect of the composition of the population or to changes in reproductive behaviour. Two hypothetical scenarios are constructed: one keeps fertility rates constant while allowing variations in demographic composition, while the other fixes the composition and allows reproductive behaviour to evolve. Preliminary results reveal a general decline in immigrant fertility in both countries, though with different intensities. In Italy, the decrease is steady and pronounced; in Spain, it is milder and later. In both contexts, the what if scenario reveals that changes in population composition alone explain little of the overall variation, whereas the behavioral change has been the main driver.

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 Presented in Session P1. Families, Fertility, and the Life Course 1