Unravelling Fertility Decline in France

Laurent Toulemon , INED
Sandra Florian, INED

Between 2014 and 2024, the French total fertility rate declined from 2.0 to 1.6 children per woman. In France, as in Nordic countries, the decline in fertility seems to be driven partly by a reduction in the proportion of cohabiting couples, the emergence of new union forms and, above all, by a drop in childbearing among younger couples. Studies based on different data sets suggest relatively limited disparities across socio-economic groups, a pattern that can be partly attributed to high-level interactions among explanatory factors. Our first objective is to compare results derived from different data sources concerning the recent decline in French fertility according to age, birth order, union status and social class. A central question is whether the decline primarily reflects a rise in childlessness or a reduction in higher-order births, particularly beyond the second child. Social differences are also a subject of debate as the decline in fertility seems to affect all social groups. Identifying the groups experiencing the largest declines requires the use of large-scale survey data and an assessment of their limitations and potential biases. Furthermore, fertility intentions among young adults in France have also fallen significantly over the past 20 years. Here again, similar trends are observed across all social groups. Our second objective is to evaluate whether the specific groups identified in large-scale surveys as having experienced the sharpest decline in fertility correspond to those for which fertility intentions are lowest in 2024.

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 Presented in Session 15. Fertility: Trends and Patterns