Differences in Total Fertility Rate by Country of Birth across the European Union

Andrea Succi , Eurostat - European Commission
Veronica Corsini, Eurostat - European Commission

This abstract presents an ongoing work at Eurostat to develop comparable measures of total fertility rates (TFR) by country of birth for each EU country. Migration’s impact on population trends is often assessed through net migration flows, but the differing fertility behaviours of foreign-born and native-born populations can also shape demographic dynamics. Preliminary estimates reveal significant variations across EU countries: in some, higher fertility rates among the foreign-born can be observed, while in others the opposite pattern emerges, or no significant differences are found. In some countries, the fertility rates of foreign-born populations significantly affect the overall TFR. Additionally, age-specific fertility rates differ between these groups, with foreign-born populations often exhibiting higher fertility rates at younger ages in several countries. However, a converging trend in TFR between foreign-born and native-born populations has also been observed in the last decade in some EU countries. Further estimates will distinguish fertility trends between EU foreign-born and non-EU foreign-born groups. Preliminary estimates show that, as the EU level, non-EU foreign-born women have a significantly higher TFR than native-born and EU foreign-born women. Key data quality challenges will also be addressed, including inconsistencies in registering live births by mother’s place of usual residence and the issue of over-coverage in foreign-born population estimates. Therefore, this work will focus on the data input used to estimate TFR by country of birth, the methodology adopted, the data quality issues to address, and the results obtained.

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 Presented in Session P3. Families, Fertility, and the Life Course 3