War-Related Media Narratives and Fertility in Poland

Ewa Weychert , University of Warsaw
Daniele Vignoli, University of Florence
Anna Matysiak, University of Warsaw

Today’s world is marked by growing uncertainty due to climate change, economic instability, and geopolitical tensions within and beyond Europe. In this environment, decisions about having children—because they involve long-term emotional and economic commitments—become more difficult when the future feels uncertain or unstable. The role of war-related media narratives, discursive framings of threat, insecurity, and national survival, remains largely unexplored. This study investigates how war-related media narratives is associated with fertility in Poland, which provides a natural case study: it borders the Russia-Ukraine conflict, acts as a NATO frontline state, and exhibits persistently low fertility despite extensive pronatalist policies. We compile a longitudinal dataset of war-related media narratives in major Polish outlets (2014–2025), using keyword analysis and topic modeling to measure narrative intensity, which we align with regional fertility indicator (monthly birth rates). Using time-series models, we assess whether fluctuations in war-related media precede shifts in fertility. The study extends the future narratives literature to the geopolitical domain, advancing that collective imaginaries of conflict and insecurity shape demographic behavior under prolonged uncertainty.

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 Presented in Session 95. Fertility Responses to War and Crisis