Projecting the Future Demand for Long-Term Care in the EU

Alba Bernini , European Commission - Joint Research Centre
Astrid Nédée, European Commission - Joint Research Centre
Fabrizio Natale, European Commission - Joint Research Centre

Long-term care (LTC) encompasses a wide range of services that support individuals requiring nursing care or assistance with daily activities due to disease, disability, or age-related frailty. As the population of the European Union continues to age, the demand for LTC is expected to increase, particularly if gains in life expectancy are not accompanied by improved health. This growing demand raises significant concerns about the sustainability and equity of health and social care systems. To address these challenges, modelling and projection tools are essential for anticipating future LTC demand and informing evidence-based policy decisions. This study presents a projection model designed to estimate future LTC demand trends across the EU27 and provide insights into the population in need of care and the corresponding formal workforce requirements. The model integrates demographic trends, health status indicators, and social factors, such as household composition and care preferences. By including scenarios about healthy ageing, disease prevalence, and household composition, the model enables policymakers to test different assumptions and provides an evidence-based tool for policy analysis. Our projections extend to 2070, offering insights into how various health and demographic trajectories could influence future LTC demand and workforce requirements. Our findings aim to support strategic planning at the EU level and complement national health workforce initiatives. This scenario-based approach ultimately contributes to the development of sustainable and equitable long-term care systems that can meet the evolving needs of Europe’s ageing population.

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 Presented in Session 47. Healthcare Access, Utilization and Care Needs